Abdullah II of Jordan, King, 409 Advanced Research Project Agency (ARPA), 349 Afghanistan troop surge (2009), 52–53,
60,
82,
164,
182–184 US military withdrawal and CIA activity (2014), 181 Africa Command (AFRICOM), 143,
151,
255 Air Force, US, 174creation as independent organization, 171 organizational essence, 134 Allison, Graham, 29,
55,
57,
119,
129,
164,
187,
377Cuban Missile Crisis study, 55–56,
254 Model I (rational actor model), 29–31,
93–94 Model II (organizational process model), 31,
129–130 Model III (governmental politics model), 31,
42,
165–166,
194 on limitations of frameworks, 19 American exceptionalism, 318,
341,
342–343 appointments secretary for the president, 197 Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (ACDA), 135 authoritarian regimes, 352 availability cascade, 104 availability heuristic, 118 Bannon, Steve, 15,
201,
210,
410 bargaining games, 177–180 Bay of Pigs invasion, 220 belief system defenses, 109 beliefs unitary state perspective, 60–63 Biden, Joe, 97,
183,
208,
214,
232,
304,
398,
400 Billingslea, Marshall, 260 “Black Hawk Down” incident, 321 Bortnikov, Alexander, 362 bounded rationality, 176–177 Brazil–Russia–India–China–South Africa (BRICS), 359 bridging the gap initiatives, 247 Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, 287 bureaucratic politics perspective, 33,
164–166,
254,
343,
377agency interests, 171–174 bargaining, 180–184satisficing and compromise, 176 foreign policy mistakes, 184–186 individuals’ position and interests, 166–169 palace politics and bureaucratic power structures, 212–213 quick reference summary, 381–382 Bush, George H.W., 118,
389national security advisors, 200 Somalia intervention, 321 Bush, George W., 88,
139,
216,
227approach to complexity, 97 Iraq invasion, 88–90,
227,
336 Iraq troop surge (2006), 228 Mexico summit meeting, 316 Proliferation Security Initiative, 389–394 Russia and, 304nuclear talks (2006–2009), 394–401 Canada, 354US Free Trade Agreement (1988), 384 Carlsnaes, Walter, 263,
360 Center for a New American Security, 327 Center for System Peace, 354 Central Command (CENTCOM), 157,
255 Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), 22,
136intelligence assessments, 173 organizational essence, 151 paramilitary activities, 173 Chamberlain, Neville, 112 Cheney, Dick, 89,
216,
233,
395 China. See also Xi Jinpinghotline establishment, 79 India border dispute, 363–364 Senkaku/Diaoyu islands dispute, 355 Taiwanese independence and, 59 Circular-175 Procedure, 252 Clapp, Priscilla, 32,
169 Clinton, Bill, 118,
200,
231,
342approach to complexity, 97 Iraq missile strike (1993), 200 NATO expansion question, 188,
192–193 Clinton, Hillary, 183,
225,
388Guantanamo Bay closure efforts and, 403,
405 influence as advisor, 232 cognitive dissonance, 108 cognitive perspective, 45,
91,
94,
253–254,
377beliefs and cognitive biases, 103–110 contrasted to unitary state perspective, 94 departmental leaders, 187 foreign policy mistakes, 120–121 individual leaders’ importance, 115 limits on human cognition, 97–99 personality and ideology, 115–117 quick reference summary, 381 cognitive process model, 95 Cold War, 317,
346. See also Soviet Unionhistory of foreign policy analysis and, 21 comparative case study methodology, 351 comparative foreign policy (CFP), 345–346compared with foreign policy analysis, 346–349 democratic peace theory, 353–356 events data movement, 349–351 middle power theory, 356–360 mid-level approach, 351–353 comparative politics, 348 Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act (CISADA) (2010), 400 Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE), 78 confidence-building measures (CBM), 77–80 Conflict and Peace Data Bank (COPDAB), 349 Congress, 135,
297–308,
385influence on Executive Branch, 297–298 Iran nuclear deal (2009), 305–306 legislative function, 298–300 Middle East arms sales (early 1980s), 285 Russian nuclear talks (2006–2009), 400 Russian sanctions (2017), 331–332 War Powers Resolution, 301 coordination (organizational), 141standard operating procedures and, 148–149 Corwin, Edward Samuel, 302 counterbureaucracy, 207–212 Counterterrorism and Countering Violent Extremism, Bureau of, 267 Cuba, 317Bay of Pigs invasion, 220 Guantanamo Bay lease, 401 Cuban Missile Crisis, 27,
78,
81,
118,
128,
197organizational perspective, 157 culture (organizational), 126,
142–144,
168–169 David, Charles-Philippe, 234 defense, secretary of, 202 Defense Department, 133,
178,
185,
188,
195,
408Advanced Research Project Agency (ARPA), 349 NATO expansion question, 193 Office of Foreign Military Affairs, 255palace politics perspective, 254 sub-bureaucratic interests, 270–271 Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), 256 democracy (definition), 354 democratic peace theory, 353–356 Deputies Committee (DC), 271 determinants of action, 7 diversionary theory of war, 288 domestic politics, 6. See also two-level game modelboundary and factional conflicts, 295 foreign policy as extension, 287–290 governmental influences, 296–312 non-governmental influences, 313–315 quick reference questions, 382–383 win-set dynamics, 294–295 dominant leader model, 95 Dunford, Joseph, 148,
201,
223,
410 dynamic inconsistency, 102 Eikenberry, Karl, 183,
262 Eisenhower, Dwight D., 22,
45,
73 Emanuel, Rahm, 183,
214,
404 embassies, 140,
142–143State Department cables to, 150 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), 170 Estonia Russian kidnapping of intelligence officers, 127–128 European Union (EU), 41,
340 events data movement, 349–351 Federal Reserve Bank, 139 Flournoy, Michele, 327,
376 Foreign Affairs Restructuring and Reform Act (1998), xiii,
135 foreign policy (definition), 3 foreign policy actions as organizational outputs, 131 foreign policy analysis (FPA) applicability to other countries, 339–345 comparative foreign policy (CFP) and, 346–349 evolution of classic models, 39–41 history post-Second World War period, 20–21 levels of analysis, 24–27 sub-bureaucratic politics as analytical gap, 241–251 foreign policy community, 326 Friedman, George, 82,
313 fundamental attribution error, 107 Gallucci, Robert, 56,
248,
376 Gates, Robert, 179,
183,
232,
402 George, Alexander, 26,
56 Global Data on Events, Location and Tone (GDELT) project, 349 Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism (GICNT), 394 Goldwater–Nichols Act (1986), 76 governmental politics model, 31,
42,
165 Guantanamo Bay, 311,
401–406 Halperin, Morton, 29,
32–33,
134,
169 Hart–Rudman Commission, 137 Henry J. Hyde United States–India Peaceful Atomic Energy Cooperation Act (2006), 396 Hermann, Margaret, 44,
197,
222 hidden planet effect, 280 Hill, Christopher, 138,
251 Homeland Security, Department of (DHS), 133,
256,
278US Customs and Border Protection (CBP), 148 Homeland Security Act (2002), 137 homo sociologicus, 43,
45,
198 hot–cold empathy gap, 102 Houghton, David, 43,
58,
94,
198 House of Representatives, 312–313. See also Congress Hussein, Saddam, 88,
109,
320,
334,
336,
373 India, 69,
79China border dispute, 363–364 National Security Council, 75 nuclear cooperation agreement with US, 396 Information Agency, US, 135 Institute of War and Peace Studies, 22,
24,
25–26 interagency processes, 224,
264,
266,
271Proliferation Security Initiative, 390–391 Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF), 272 international agreements, 150–151 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), 390 International Development, Agency for, 135 international environment, 4 international relations (IR) theory crossover with government positions, 247–249 International Trade Administration, 256 involuntary defection, 295 Iran, 221Bush (2000–2008) Administration policy toward, 221–222 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (nuclear deal), 40,
41,
66,
70,
295,
400congressional involvement, 305–306 officials responsible for negotiation, 225–226 Russian support for, 395,
399–401 Iraq as personified state, 336–337 Hidiya Special Forces Raid (2008), 158 invasion (2003), 88–90,
98,
259groupthink in run-up to, 220–222 weapons inspections and WMD report, 334–336 WMD programs as justification for, 334–336 missile strike (1993), 200 Obama’s visit (2009), 125–126,
127 troop surge (2006), 182–183,
228 Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), 407 Israel, 101Camp David summit deal (2000), 113–114 Lebanon invasion (1982), 162–163 May 17 Accords (1983), 227 Jackson, Henry “Scoop”, 156 Jackson–Vanik legislation, 304,
330,
344 Janis, Irving, 26,
219–220 Jervis, Robert, 26,
62,
80,
121,
173 joint chiefs of staff, 182 Jones, Christopher M., 194 Jones, James, 183,
209,
214 Jordan, 284,
285–286,
409 Kahneman, Daniel, 101,
103,
114 Kegley, Charles W., Jr., 341,
350 Kennedy, John F., 3,
30,
32,
157America as leader of free world, 342 Bay of Pigs invasion, 220 Cuban Missile Crisis creation of Executive Committee, 199 Kerry, John, 40,
224,
228,
400 Key West Accords (1948), 174 Khomeini, Ayatollah Ruhollah, 121,
284 Kissinger, Henry, 90,
235,
328on relationship of domestic policy to foreign policy, 288 Krasner, Stephen, 34,
119,
179,
343 Krauthammer, Charles, 318 Kushner, Jared, 15,
201,
205,
208,
225,
235Mattis’ and Dunford’s overtures to, 223 leadership, 4–5,
90background and experience, 117–119 effect of individual leaders, 115 influences on decision-making, 4–6 leaders as human beings, 91–97 personality Greenstein’s six traits, 117 Lebanon, 195–196Israeli invasion (1982), 162–163 US Marine deployment (1982), 184–185,
187–188,
372palace politics perspective, 226 levels of analysis framework, 24–27,
47,
376 linkage politics, 36,
290–296 Lobbying Disclosure Act (1995), 324 Magnitsky Act (2012), 304,
330 al-Maliki, Nouri, 125,
127,
128 mandarin algorithm of power, 173,
174 Manifest Destiny, doctrine of, 342 March, James, 60,
97,
181 Mattis, Jim, 16,
169,
201,
217,
223,
407 Matviyenko, Valentina, 362 McClelland, Charles, 349–351 McDonough, Denis, 218,
228–230 McMaster, H.R., 201,
217,
223,
408 Medina, Javier Suarez, 316 Medvedev, Dmitry, 312,
399,
400 Miles, Rufus, 42,
167,
196 Miles’ Law, 42,
47,
167,
187,
196,
207 Miller, Stephen, 194,
201 Morningstar, Richard, 300 mutual assured destruction (MAD), 69 national attributes theory, 351 national security (definition), 3 National Security Act (1947), 39,
75,
199 national security advisor, 194 National Security Council (NSC), 22,
30,
33,
73,
188,
221,
408international counterparts, 75 policy coordinating committess and, 271 national security establishment, 126 national security strategy, 76–77,
84 Navarra (Spanish frigate), 390 non-synergistic linkage, 307 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), 114,
383–389congressional campaign, 388–389 internal opposition to, 388 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), 5post-Cold War expansion, 188–190 North Korea, 138–139,
340 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), 390 Nuclear Risk Reduction Center, 79 Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), 390 Obama, Barack, 1,
218Afghan troop surge (2009), 52–53,
104,
183 American exceptionalism and, 342 Bryza ambassadorial appointment, 299–300 Guantanamo Bay closure effort, 401–406 Iran nuclear deal, 399–401 Iraq visit (2009), 125–126,
127 lead from behind thesis, 373 Medvedev open mic incidenct, 312 on limits to foreign policy preferences, 26 Paris Climate Accords, 330–331 Syrian chemical weapons deal, 407 Syrian proposed missile strikes (2013), 228–229 Odyssey Dawn, Operation, 1 Office of International Religious Freedom (OIRF), 238 O’Neill, Thomas “Tip”, 268 Organization for the Prevention of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), 358 organizational culture, 126,
142–144,
168–169 organizational essence, 134–139State Department, 135–137 Treasury Department, 138–139 organizational process perspective, 31,
128,
251,
254,
377beyond bureaucratic operations, 254–259 decision-making and agency of organizations, 127–128 essence of organizations, 134–139 foreign policy as organizational procedure, 145 foreign policy mistakes, 155–158 incompleteness of, 259–262 information processing in, 152–154 nature of organizations, 131–133 organizational culture, 142–144 organizations as actors, 127–131 quick reference summary, 381 reasons for creating organizations, 132–133 organizational routines, 147 Pacific Command (PACOM), 255 Pahlavi, Reza, Shah of Iran, 121 palace politics model, 194–195 palace politics perspective, 43,
194,
197–198,
254,
377bureaucratic players, 202–203 bureaucratic power structures and, 212–213 counterbureaucracy, 207–212 foreign policy mistakes, 226–228 Iraq invasion (2003), 336 leading palace indicators, 224–226 persuasion and influence, 212–223 presidential interests, 205–212 presidential staff, 198–199,
203–204 quick reference summary, 382 Palestine 2000 Camp David summit deal, 113–114 United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), 180 Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), 162 Panetta, Leon, 206,
212,
225–226,
387,
403 Paris Climate Accords, 114,
150,
330–331 Partnership for Peace, 189 personified state, 90,
91leaders as human beings, 91–97 Petraeus, David, 52,
182,
183,
327 Policy Coordinating Committees (PCCs), 271,
277 policy entrepreneurs, 234 poliheuristic theory, 113 Powell, Colin, 9,
76–77,
170,
221,
233,
239,
336,
373Treasury bank investigations, 138 preferences cognitive perspective, 99–103 unitary state perspective, 58–60 president, US, 34as personification of unitary state, 92,
253 capacity to attend to issues, 145–146 congressional limits on authority, 301 election process, 119–120 personal influence, 119–120 personality types, 116–117 role in bureaucratic bargaining, 179–180 staff and advisors, 198–199national security advisors, 203–204 personal counselors, 204–205 position relative to other government entities, 211 presidential bureaucratic appointments, 169–170 presidential systems, 352 probability estimation heuristics, 105 Proliferation Security Initiative, 389–394interagency process, 390–391 Russian participation, 394–395 psychological factors, 41 public administration, 246domestic politics ratification processes, 293 public opinion, 35–36,
315–323 Putin, Vladimir, 127,
139,
186,
304,
362,
395on US Syria intervention (2013), 343 Putnam, Robert, 36,
40,
43,
292,
339–340,
377 ratification processes, 293,
297–298,
305 rational actor model, 29–31,
93. See also unitary state perspective rational choice theory, 43,
58 Reagan, Ronald, 162,
284America as leader of free world, 342 Canadian Free Trade Agreement, 384 proposed North American trade agreement, 384 Saudi arms sales (early 1980s), 286 Shultz–Weinberger discord, 196 Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), 227 representativeness heuristic, 118 Restore Hope, Operation, 321 Rice, Condoleezza, 391,
395,
399 Rishikof, Harvey, 173,
308 Roosevelt, Franklin Delano, 39,
208,
311 Rosenau, James N., 35,
291,
347–348 Rumsfeld, Donald, 182,
395assessment of NSC role, 75 Russia, 304. See also Soviet UnionGeorgian separatism and, 398 Jackson–Vanik legistlation, 304 kidnapping of Estonian intelligence officers, 127–128 North Korean money laundering and, 139 nuclear reduction initiative (2006–2009), 330,
394–401 Russian Central Bank, 139 Saakashvili, Mikheil, 398 Saleh, Ali Abdullah, 157–158 Salinas de Gortari, Carlos, 383–384,
387 Schattschneider, Elmer Eric, 219 Schattschneider effect, 219,
285,
369 Schelling, Thomas, 54–55,
58,
70,
82 scholar-practitioners, 22 Senate, 298,
385. See also CongressForeign Relations Committee, 300 Subcommittee on National Policy Machinery, 156 Simon, Herbert, 32,
60,
97,
132,
144,
181 small-group process model, 95 So San (North Korean ship), 390 social constructivism, 67–68 Soviet Union, 21,
69,
317. See also Georgia; Russiacollapse and breakup, 398 Defense Department and, 195 internal decision-making, 346 Spanish–American War, 328 Special Operations Command (SOCOM), 151 specialization (organizational), 139–141 spectrum of dominance, 34 Sprout, Margaret and Harold, 198 standard operating procedures (SOP), 126,
147,
156 State Department, 133,
135,
142,
178,
182,
188,
257Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs, 256 diplomatic cables to embassies, 150 international relations roles, 173 Middle East arms sales, 284 NATO expansion question, 188,
193 Office of International Religious Freedom (OIRF), 238,
267 organizational essence, 135–137 Stephanopoulos, George, 386,
388 Stevens, J. Christopher, 2 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), 272 Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), 227 sub-agency interests, 264,
266–268 sub-bureaucratic politics perspective, 42,
377agency of lower-level officials, 263–264 authorization to negotiate, 252 definition of sub-bureaucratic politics, 269 departmental division of functions, 256–258 face time and top cover, 274 identifying key players, 269–277 institutional secrecy, 246 interagency communities, 277–278 quick reference summary, 382 regional versus functional dynamics, 275–277 research challenges and focus on higher-level decision-making, 242–249 sub-agency interest divergence, 266–268 transgovernmentalism, 258–259 subordinate bureaucratic politics, 421 Sub-Policy Coordinating Committee (PCC), 390 Supreme Court, 308–310death penalty ruling, 316 lobbying and advocacy rulings, 324 Syria missile strike on (2017), 201,
406–410 proposed intervention (2013), 228–229,
343British response, 344–345 System 1/System 2 cognition, 114 Thaler, Richard, 102Supreme Court death penalty ruling, 316 Tillerson, Rex, 15,
169,
217,
225,
407,
410 Timbie, James P., 272–273 Tocqueville, Alexis de, 342 trans-agency character, 276 transgovernmental relations, 258 Trans-Pacific Partnership (TTP), 15 Treasury Department, 154,
256Middle East arms sales and, 284 organizational essence, 138–139 Truman, Harry S., 45,
310 Trump, Donald J. “America First” rhetoric, 14,
342 election and inauguration, 14–15 foreign policy approach, 15 international agreements and, 114 leadership style, 14–15,
92 Middle Eastern policy attitude, 409 Russian sanctions (2017), 331–332 staff and advisors, 15,
201,
204,
217–219presidential appointments, 170 Syria missile strike (2017), 201,
231,
407–410 two-level game model, 35–38,
292–296,
338,
377applicability to other countries, 340 uncertainty absorption, 153 undersecretaries, 270–271 unitary state perspective, 29–31,
54,
93,
253,
377Allison frames rational actor model, 29–31,
55–56 contrasted to cognitive perspective, 94 countries as rational actors, 54–55 deterrence and compellence, 69–71 foreign policy mistakes, 82–83 identity of rational actor, 56–57 influence on government centralized decision-making, 72–76 confidence-building measures (CBM), 77–80 international relations and, 65–66 quick reference summary, 381 rational choice theory and, 58 US approximation to, 71–72 United Kingdom, 151parliamentary system, 343–345 United Nations Human Rights Commission, 316 Palestine Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), 180 Security Council, 397resolution authorizing Libyan intervention, 5 Vajpayee, Atal Bihari, 75 Waltz, Kenneth, 24–25,
66levels of analysis framework, 376 War Powers Act (1976), 7,
374 weapons of mass destruction (WMD), 334–336,
389 Weinberger, Caspar, 195,
372 Westminster system, 343–345 whole of government approach, 76 Wilson, James Q., 156,
167,
171,
246 win-set dynamics, 294–295 World Event Interaction Survey (WEIS), 349 World Health Organization (WHO), 358 World Trade Organization (WTO), 330 Youngstown Sheet & Tube Company v. Sawyer, 310